Alliances and Implications
by Anshuman Goenka
For Friends of BJP, this was a bad weekend. We lost a pivotal ally in Orissa, and my earlier belief that the core of the NDA has been intact through the 1998, 1998 and 2004 elections seems to be coming untrue. There are many ways of deliberating what could or should have been done. But as one who holds not a membership, leave alone any influence within the party one would have to wait for more news.
Later, we learnt that the alliance between the Congress and SP in UP has also ended. It is natural to draw pleasure in the dismemberment of an opposing political formation. But as I write this, these two stories bring home important truths and raise questions that any of us should seriously think about, matters that I believe are more important that our own affiliations today.
One, regional parties have a phenomenal and growing bargaining strength in national politics, starting the early 1990s. Two, alliance politics is fluid and parties can choose from being “secular, therefore anti-BJP” to being “anti-Congress and against dynastic politics” with little or no heed to a coherent, stable ideology. Three, in most cases the rein of the party is transferred genetically and not democratically. Each of these, in my view, is a sad but incontrovertible, truth.
They also raise some questions to which I do not have answers yet:
- What is the end game of region-based parties dominating national coalitions? Will they survive a second generation? The National Conference in J&K or the TDP in AP, but who will take over the TMC or BSP?
- Can a national party slowly enter a state with an alliance and over time build a popular base? BJP entered Gujarat as a junior partner of the Chimanbhai Patel-led Janata Dal in 1989 and has steadily built a fort in the state. Can this extend to other states, and if so, how?
- How does one confront a former ally who till yesterday one had supported? This applies to the BJP-BJD situation in Orissa. The imbroglio becomes more curious if you consider the possibility of a repeat alliance with the estranged partner
I will write my own thoughts on this during the week. But in the meanwhile, readers on this blog would have their own thoughts, which I would like to learn about.
Comments
27 Responses to “Alliances and Implications”
Dear Goenka,
As per my analysis, BJP lost last Poll due to wrong policies of BJP’s 3 Central Ministers. They are- 1. Arun Soorie, Minister for Disinvestment, who created havok in the mind of organised workers of the PSU, 2. Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi, Minister fo HRD, who without considering the sentiments of our people started changing the syllabus of CBSE text-books, 3. Late Promode Mahasan, Minister for Communication&IT, who had sold out Telecom sector to Private operators. So, I request to take lesson from these mistakes.
Dear Goenka,
Iam not a member of a any political party as yet, but Iam following every political party by my own assessment through media especially.
You have mentioned and we all heard yesterday, that BJP has lost its pivotal ally in Orissa. From my personal point of view it has happened in the betterment of party’s future. Also whenever and wherever BJP came to power after allying with its partner or when it was a leading opposition party status. e.g Gujarat, Delhi, Karnataka, MP, UP, Maharashtra, Panjab, Haryana. In my view BJP which is heading for LS polls has nothing to worry more than the local party workers shold be happy and now they have a golden opportunity to blossom the Lotus in a true manner.
Each and every worker of the party should motivate himself looking at above examples and history to move forward and Sri.Advaniji to lead the NDA with fullest of its majority for better governance to meet need of the country.
Hope everyone will take lesson from history,
Santosh
Dear Mr. Goenka,
It seems that entering to a state with the help of a small party and then to build a fort is a proper policy. But during execution of the same, some points should be considered. While pleasing the state party, BJP should not forget their own parviaar sanstha. One specific issue of Dabhol Power Project in Maharashtra.
As per my opinion, it was betrayal with Swadeshi Jagran Manch. It was just to please Shivsena, as Shivsena Chief had the meeting the Rebeka Mark and thenaafter with Shri Gopinath Munde.
You might have noted that Shivsena never leaves their strategic points for an alliance with BJP.
There are number of such instances that you will no better than me, which effect the mind of small BJP workers like me about the activities of alliances.
Thanks,
Anshuman,
Your observations are noteworthy and the debate you have asked for is necessary in the long run. However, I think as “friends of BJP” the current focus of all including this forum should be “Only on Winning” for the BJP in 2009 elections. Therefore, debates are good but what is essential is for all of us BJP supporters to focus all our energy on action that may yield greater attention, spread BJP’s strong points, highlight the horrible performance of UPA and ultimate gain more votes for BJP.
My request is for us to focus on articles and issues that results in “Action items” for all us supporters so that we can help directly or indirectly in garnering more votes for BJP in 2009.
I had requested earlier for a small presentation and which was promised by one of the moderators. The presentation should cover 5 points on 5 topics pointing the failures of the UPA govt. The 5 topics could be economy, internal security, democracy (chawla, cbi, etc), etc. Each of these topics should have 5 concrete points backed with facts on where the UPA has failed. Further, we need to create an other section of how NDA was better on many of the same topics and why it will be better.
Please create such a presentation. All the visitors to this website can then take it and circulate it to focussed groups in their circle.
Thanks and keep up the great work!!
Anshumanji,
Please not to loose heart. In politics, every setback is an Opportunity of Course Changing Direction. BJP as an Organisation must learn the following:
1. BJP/Sangha Parivar must give complete trust and support to Advaniji both in letter & Spirit.
2.BJP now need to look at a mirror and honestly asses how good they look as an Organisation readiness for general election.
3. BJP should be CLEAR in their head about their POSITIONING for election.
a.Security, Governance and Development; OR
b.Hindu Rastra/Ram Mandir issue
( In my opinion Hindu Rastra/Ram Mandir has outlived its usage and would be counter productive– Why BJP lost ground in UP after demolition of Babri Masjid)
4.BJP can articulate Protection and Popularisation of HINDU Way of life led by its own ADMINISTATION which Includes its Muslim Subjects as equal.
India was ruled by Muslim King for 500 years, Again
India was ruled by Christians, British rulers for 200 years.
Why not similarly, A Hindu Led Administration who treats, Muslim subjects as equals.
May be, Advaniji would be offered same Respect In MUSLIM household, as Emperor Akbar was Respected in Hindu families.
Don’t worry, Laws of nature would ultimately prevail.
regard,
Bikash
Anshuman,
I agree with Mr.Iyer’s suggestion of PPT on point by point rebuttal on all UPA policies and circulating them.
someone from economic team should also compare what a family of 4 earning Rs. 5000 , Rs. 10000 , 20000 was saving in 2004 and in 2009. Someone should also compare EMI of a 5 Lac rupee homeloan in 2004 and 2009.This will debunk the AAM ADMI theory.
Regards
Lot of churning will happen after the polls. UPA and NDA in her pre-poll alliance avatar will have difficuly in setting up a govt. 3rd front will have to be broken. All 3rd front partners want to be PM. Mulayam/Lalu/Sharad Pawar/Mayawati/JayLalita/CBNaidu/Devegowda/N.Patnaik. 3rd front can’t put up a govt as no one will except other member as PM. Only N.Patnaik will have chance from 3rd front.Mayawati+Chiranjeevi+Jaylalitha will be key for NDA.
Friends, Many of the potential BJP voters are not aware how to get the Voter ID Cards. Please support them. We need to get maximum Number of voters possible to the booths.
MODERATOR - Please provide the detailed process and form downloads in this site. THIS IS URGENT. Time is running out.
PS: Voter ID is mandatory in this election. Am I right ?
It is not a child’s play to rech Indian pariliament,game is still going let our plyers(Leaders) play, the most deserving party will win in the end.
Dear Mr. Goenka,
In my openion loss of BJD will effect BJP in the short run however it is an opportunity for BJP to build its party in Orissa which will yeild in the long run. A similar approach needs to be adopted in Maharastra.
In the short term BJP need to woo Jaylalitha and Mayawati for April 2009.
Top 3 Issues BJP need to focus on::
1. Price rise + Economy + Loss of Jobs
2. Terror / Pakistan
3. Illeagal Bangladesis
namaste goenkaji,
as i am a novice in politics i cann’t advise u on this matter but ican convey my feelings to u.can u please answer if time permits? let me tell one thing that there is nothing to worry about the break up with bjd.bjp started it alone in eighties and should go it alone this time.still people of orissa think that bjp-bjd rally will come out together.in orissa bjp has a good reputation till date.bcoz during nda rule orissa got sanction of setting up IIT,AIIMS,REC(regional college of engineering) became NIT,better road networks etc.so don’t get panic. u may follow a few things
1: attack ur adversaries at their strong points
2: mobilise everything to get ur point to the common man
3:like a real strategist never goes to war still wins it
4:a winner also learns from it’s opponents.
what is there behind kandhamal,godhra,mumbai terror attacks local people know it better not 10 janpath people.ram mandir/ hindu rashtra issue is post election affair. JUST GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE PROBLEM HEAD ON.THIS IS THE POWER OF ONE proven so many times.meeting with naveenji is also another thing to be thought of seriously.3rd front doesn’t have any dimension.it’s still nda vs upa(ulta peyr aanaa)
JAI HIND
The BJD in Orissa played the role of an oppertunist political party. It has shaked hands with the CPI & CPM, the parties which are purely anti national in character.
The voters of Orissa should give a lession to the BJD.
GOPAL PANIGRAHI
JOURNALIST
Though irrelevant here but I just wanted to know where is the video for Pune session, even if the points may be same it makes sense to upload and circulate it and may be it will be a good idea to break it down in parts for easy accessibility and lastly its taking to much time for getting uploaded .. people might loose interest or forget
In Orissa the Hindu saints like Swami Laxmananand are murdered by the minority sponspored terrorism. The BJD led govt has secret relations with the naxal outfits.
The BJD in Orissa betrayed the BJP and took the shelter of the Left. We should not forget that in Nepal when the Maoist party came into power, they tried to overthough the legendary Pasupatinath Temple priest.
Today political parties have crocodile’s cry for secularism, and one should be worried if they stop the RATHYATRA of lord Jagannath to prove themselves Secular.
The Hindus are not Human being, they are mere animals in the eyes of the psedo secular parties.
Firstly my suggestion is to ensure that this website is popularised.I just found this on via a news item on Ladvani.in and found it very upto date and thought provoking.
Coming to the BJD BJP split,I am sure this is a setback for the NDA but still not all is lost.My humble suggestions to BJP:
1.Please try to form state,district,city and mohalla level volunteer groups to propogate the message and garner support.You do not know what wonders could this make.
2.Please rope in a spectrum of your leaders to convey your points to people effectively.Currently I am not impressed by the fact that only 2-3 spokespersons are doing this work.
3.More importantly, the perception and energy also matters.The party leaders must provide not only an energetic but also an energetic face to the campaign.As I said more young faces need to come up for campaign.
4.Please be aware that there is a very strong(though invisible) censorship in a section of media against BJP which continues to tarnish the image of BJP.The blowing out of proportions of the Karnataka incident must be an eye opener.
Dear Anshuman,
My opinion is that it literally boils down to the age old “whats in it for me”. Regarding the 3 very pertinent questions you raised:
1. There’s no denying that region based parties with or without dynasty are here to stay - the main reason in my view is ability to focus its appeal on the economic/social/cultural realities of the people of 1 state which a national party will find tough to do because (a) the national heavyweights are often not close to the reality as they think (b) often that message may piss people off and hurt prospects in another state or in national politics (c) the best people prefer to work with a powerful regional party than the powerful bosses in delhi whom they don’t get to see or meet too often and who culturally are far removed from them
2.BJP’s success in Gujarat can be traced even before the rise of Gujarat in BJP e.g. maximum number of Kar Sevaks when the Ayodhya movement first started were from Gujarat, thanks to covert muslim domination of the historically mild gujjus in the 10 years before the Ram Mandir issue surfaced, whether in Gujarat itself or in Mumbai still a city which has huge links to Gujarat. In short BJP’s ideology was great for the state to embrace. Continued success has just 1 name - MODI. The state has found a hero.
3. Lessons from Karnataka would be good to learn i.e. find local grassroot leaders and nurture them. Elections are won in constutuencies and national leadership have to respect it before getting onto a place and leave ground reality. One of the biggest limitations of BJP and reason why I will still go with Congress is the fact that it has very few national leaders, young or old, who dominate critical decision making like the respected Arun Jaitley himself that are capable of winning an MP seat.
Friends of BJP is a super initiative and indeed heartening to see the educated start caring about a dirty word like politics but the views are of people like you are me who never slept on a hungry stomach, whose near one never committed a “farmer suicide” or who was denied a job because of his religion. Probably a good time to rope in some NGOs and start getting closer to the slumdogs still impoverished.
Cheers,
Somone who knows you well
BJP can come up only with Ideologies which it has maintained, I feel
1. It should stop entertaining the corrupt congreesis in its fold
2. It should now start promoting its next generation leaders.
3. Irrespective of win it should focus nurturing constituencies & villages in large number thru social improvement of common man.
4. Our country is still 70% of villages & it should concentrate for its strength there as cities have civilized/ educated who invariably understand BJP thoughts.
5. We have seen the growth of BJP from 2 MPs to 88 to 140 + , we are sure that this will grow only with strong Ideology & national interest & a day will come we can see BJP-375 MPs who can change the constitution, system & it will be the national pride.
BJP has lost strength in Orissa and that is the reason this has happened. What was the central leadership doing when the BJP state unit was going down the drain.
BJD believes that it can win on its own and it might lose with an alliance with BJP if it has to give away 60 odd seats.
So now it is for BJP to prove that it still remains a player.
Having said that, this is surely an act of betrayal and BJP should go all out to defeat the BJD.
I request the top BJP leaders to go and approach BJD again.There is nothing wrong in stepping down a little for the cause of the country.And as far as the other alliances are concerned please keep them engaged in continuous dialogue and launch joint campaigns with alliance partners so that they do not feel alienated and also the demonstration of unity will manifest as votes for NDA which is a big score against UPA which lacks unity and is opportunistic.
I disagree with Prahlad. BJP lost the last election because of its allies. None of its allies managed to win what they claimed they would! On the contrary, the activities of the three ministers that you pointed are highly appreaciated by many forward thinking citizens of India. Thanks to them, the babudom of govt. office employees were destroyed. PSU employee became more serious and sincere.
On the contrary, the current UPA Govt has played a horrible game and caused enough shame to India!!! Don’t even get me started on Arjun Singh and the other ministers!!! PC was very smart in announcing the pay commission right when the economy was in dire straits!!! now the govt doesn’t have money to pay-out the hefty salaries it has promised, causing the economy to nosedive!!!
Know your facts before you state anything!
Top Issues BJP need to focus on::
1. Price rise + Economy
2. Terror / Pakistan
3. Illeagal immigrants
4. loss of jobs,purchasing power in IT,manufacturing,auto sectors due to recession
5. educational and infrastructural benifits to poorer sections among upper castes and muslims rather than caste based, religion based discriminatory laws enacted by so called “secular” parties.
6. keep mandir etc in back burner till top 6 are addressed
The anti congress voters in Orissa have turned towards BJP.
the sankalp samaves of BJD became a mere flop show.
sarat pawar is plying dual game of politics.mr pawar thinks that orissa voters are fool.
with Narenda Modi’s public speeches in various parts of Orissa, the BJD and the congress are worried.
6th April is the Birth Day of the BJP.
From its Day-1 the Parth is raising its parameters.
Let’s hope this election will witness the success of BJP.
After breaking alliace the Biju janata Dal in Orissa is claiming itself as a true secular party. The BJD is shaking hands with the Left parties. In Orissa the Left minded naxals are acting like Taliban Terrorist Organisations. BJD’s mastermind leader Pyari mohan Mohapatro was a comrade and a campaigner for the left ideology while he was a student.
systematically he turned Naveen Pattnaik’s BJD into a left supported Party.
So he played the key role to break alliance with the BJP in Orissa.
Now the Naxals in Orissa have enlisted 14 Hindu Organisers to kill. The primary duty of the Naxals in Orissa is to kill and supress the RSS work in Orissa. The BJD has moral support for the naxals and inturn they are seeking the minority votes. The BJD is playing VOTE-BANK
politics.
SOME MEDIA IS ACTING CLEARLY ONE SIDED THAT IS NOT A HEALTHY INDICATION FOR THE DEMOCRACY AND THE NATION THEY SHOULD MUST PLAY NUTURAL ROLE IN GENERAL ELECTION
What is the role of the Fiends of BJP team now ? The party lost power to the Congress. After the elections also the team is bussy with dragging eachothers legs. Even the top rated leaders are interested in putting themselves in the political mud. People who trust the party are innocently getting hurt by this.