Congress Won Conclusively
by Swapan Dasgupta
There is a facile explanation that many of those who neither anticipated nor wished for a Congress victory in the general election may fall back on. It goes something like this: the Congress and UPA surge was contributed by its spectacular successes in Kerala, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu where its principal opponent was either the Left or another constituent of the ramshackle Third Front. The implication is that the NDA by and large held its ground.
Such an explanation would be an exercise in complete self-delusion. The harsh reality which should be obvious to all is that the Congress won the match quite conclusively. The formal numbers may suggest that the pre-poll UPA will need some outside help to cross the 272 barrier but this nominal under-achievement does not distract from the magnitude of the Congress’ achievement. There was a national swing to the Congress and India is posed for a stable Government which, barring some intentional act of self-destruction, should last a full term.
The NDA has not merely fallen significantly below its own psephological expectations; it has been rejected by the electorate. Perhaps the rejection is not quite so categorical as that suffered by the Left and the partners of the Third Front (with the honourable exception of Naveen Patnaik). But this is really a debate about whether a 80 run defeat is worse than an innings defeat. After the 1991 election, The Economist had a report entitled, “The winner came second”, testifying to the BJP’s surge and its ability to dominate the agenda. This time there is not even pretence of a moral victory. The winner has taken it all.
In the coming days, debate in the BJP is certain to centre on the question: what went wrong? Such a debate is not only necessary but welcome. Unfortunately, past experience suggests that the discussions often veer in the direction of the peripherals. There will be hand-wringing over the “internal sabotage” in Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand; speculation over why Om Prakash Chauthala rather than Bhajan Lal was chosen as the coalition partner in Haryana; mutterings over whimsical choice of candidates in some seats of Uttar Pradesh; and the inevitable back-biting over the campaign in the mass media.
It is not that these concerns are unwarranted. However, presuming that everything had turned out perfectly, the BJP and NDA would, at best, have improved its tally only marginally by, say, 15 seats. It wouldn’t have made any material difference to the outcome. Voters, it must be remembered, aren’t automatically swayed by the same concerns as activists.
In undertaking a post-mortem, it is important to not lose sight of the big picture. The BJP and NDA lost because voters found the Congress a more appealing prospect. The question then arises: was because the Congress did something right and the BJP something wrong? Or was it because the BJP did more things wrong than the Congress?
To be fair, the Congress didn’t run a particularly inspiring campaign. It was wracked by confusion over allies, inconsistent messaging and the burden of an economic slowdown and nervousness over the country’s security. Against these, it had certain definite plus points. First, it is prudent to recognise that the “weak” versus “strong” debate helped the Prime Minister and enabled him to play on his image of innate decency. Secondly, the Rahul-Priyanka duo gave dynastic politics a fresh lease of life by focussing on wholesome youth power. This was contrasted to the media’s mischievous association of the BJP with hate speech.
There were two important constituencies the BJP failed to attract in this election: the middle classes and the youth. Both these segments were crucial in ensuring the party’s performance in 1998 and 1999.
It may be unfair to blame the projection of L.K. Advani as the reason for this failure. The so-called age factor was neutralised by the projection of Manmohan Singh by the Congress. And Advani brought a large measure of unity in the party. What was not neutralised was the overall image problem of the BJP—as a party that is backward-looking, too shrill and insufficiently attentive to contemporary concerns.
Arguably, such a regressive image of the party may be a consequence of media-generated “false consciousness”. But the fact remains that this perception has percolated down to a very large section of the population. And the BJP has done precious little to counter it.
In the wake of defeat, there is always a strong temptation to retreat into a back-to-the-basics shell. This is based on the foolish belief that people didn’t vote for a party because it wasn’t sufficiently pure. The belief is as ridiculous as the suggestion that the Soviet Union fell because it wasn’t adequately socialist!
The BJP’s problem is ideological but not in the way the votaries of identity politics see it. Its lapses stem from a non-application of mind to contemporary issues such as economic and strategic policy—witness its indifferent performance in Parliament for five years. Where themes of governance have been meaningfully addressed, the BJP has done well. But this has been at the State level. At the national level, image has come back to haunt the party—a problem compounded by leaders who believe it is more important to please activists rather than be responsive to ground realities.
After two consecutive election defeats, the BJP may be confronted by a problem of relevance. It has to either reinvent itself or suffer the ignominy of steady marginalisation. The loss of all seven seats in Delhi by huge margins is a pointer to the price the party has to pay for its refusal to keep pace with the realities of a new India.
(This article was first published in The Pioneer on May 17, 2009.)
Comments
22 Responses to “Congress Won Conclusively”
I am saddened by this author. The article smacks of personal distress than a mature assessment, far less an analytical study. His pre-election posts have been proven so off-the mark. Now his post-election posts are trying to beat that record. Give the Congress six months and I am sure such rhetorical writings will be proven wrong.
Yes, there are several reasons why the BJP did not make the numbers he expected. And, they must be corrected. Congress may not have won or the BJP may not have been defeated, but still the BJP did not win. It has to corrected.
But, giving vague opinionated reasons is not the answer. Using loose language without being backed by facts does not help.
Can the Friends of BJP do a proper analysis of the numbers and come to some solid conclusions. So, that we have a good starting point to discuss. Rajesh Jains assessment is a more sober one. Back that with real data and we will have something to start with.
VR
Mr. Dasgupta, don’t you think BJP-hindutva will take it back to 1984 when it won 2 seats? Why would the electorate even bother to choose BJP if it is almost the same to congress?
You have to stand for what you really believe in, LKA lost it coz he try to overdo the “gettin softer” image! BJP promised to increase the tax slab to 3 Lakh for the working class, Rs2/Kg rice for the poor and what not? BJP fought 2004& 2009 elections on almost the same issues but lost it badly, if BJP doesn’t go back to basics now then certailny by 2014 it will go back to from where it all started– 2 seats( One M’lore & the other Pilibit ).
Voters didnt find Congress more appealing. The were appalled by the fact that BJP was imitating Congress. A music director rebuffed a gentleman who claimed that his daughter sings like Lata Mangeshkar by saying” I have Lata Mangeshkar. I dont need someone singing like her. If there is something original, I will consider”.
So, if BJP apes the Congress, Congress wins.
LK Advani’s body language was not that of one vying for the PM post. He was writing his memoirs and got it published. Writing memoirs is a retired person’s business. The amount of time spent on writing memoirs could have productively been used in activities-such as meeting ppl etc.
fURTHER, his memoirs on Kandahar revealed his panic on that. Congress cashed in.
If he hadnt written memoirs and Congress had raised Kandahar, it could have been dismissed by BJP by saying “If Kandahar had happened in ur regime, would u have allowed 100 Indians to get killed by hijackers”?
And in future, BJP should keep in mind, personal attacks(i.e. criticism of personalities) shopuld be carried out by second and third rung leaders not by PM-designate. Calling MMS “weak PM” shouldnt be Advani’s job.This ought to be done by Arun Jaitely, javadekar etc.
The only thing one heard from Advani was “MMS is a weak Pm”. He spoke nothing on developmental things like Ladli Lakshmi, How BJP would ensure poverty alleviation etc.
Swapan da is hitting his frustration out at all of us, because BJP did not win.
Its ok Swapan da. We all are also frustrated.
But for god’s sake, dont just write.Talk to BJP leaders.Galvanise and prove to them your point.
All that we need now is to make poeple think if they did a mistake in voting CONgress. And if we can sustain that momentum where people feel that they made a mistake in Voting CONgress, then anytime from now, if the CONgress government falls, we can be safely elected to do our development agenda.
For god sake, BJP, dont have the same strategy for every state. ORISSA should be made to feel that Biju backstabbed us. Under the cloud of Seat-sharing mis-understanding , BIJU ditched us. He was groomed and supported by Atalji and today he had turned selfish. We should have an agenda in ORISSA where we make the people first realise that BIJU did not deliver everything by himself or only his ministers. BJP ministers where also in his cabinet and they also worked. This should be highlighted to the people. And for gods sake, BJP should covertly and overtly make it a point that biju will never be trusted or supported by BJP till the end of the world.
TN - DMK was supported by Atalji. Murasoli maran had his treatement in Dallas , courtesy of his cabinet rank in Atalji’s cabinet. Did DMK forget that? DMK is doing dynastic politics in TN. it has brought the sons and daughters for state and National Levels. If MK dies, these people dont have clear vision. How about chasing them from now on? Investigating what they have looted from the country and make them panic and do mistakes so that people see it and spit on their faces?
For god sake, sombody give some idea to BJP people to do something in Andhra. We are a non-starter in Andhra. CHiranjeevi started things only yesterday.He is inside the Andhra Assembly today.
Its no use swapan da , writing articles here. Please talk to Advaniji and Arun (s)
And for god’s sake dont stand corruption in any sense. Throw a person if he is proven corrupt right out of the party streets.
L.Ganesan of Tamil Nadu BJP leadership has got enough bribe from DMK patriach to down play his chances of victory. My blood boils to know this.
Mr.Swapan Dasgupta,
‘Introspection’ and self-condemnation are two different things. Your “intellectual analysis” doesnt help.
I repeat once again. If there are six questions in an exam paper, if u attempt onlly two questions…passing is difficult.Let also getting 50%/60% marks. This will be the case no matter how brilliantly u attempt the two questions. You should attempt remaining 4 questions also moderately well.
Similarly, when u have no presence in about 245 seats(AP, UP, West Bengal, TN, Kerala and Orissa) and u r weak in Maharashtra(48 Seats).Out of remaining 251 seats, winning 272 seats is impossible. Please stop “intellectualism”
The difference between BJP and Congress is some 90 seats. In 6 states where BJP is absent, let us see how many seats Congress got:
1.AP-33(bjp-0)
2.TN-8(bjp-o)
3.WB-8(bjp-1)
4.Kerala-15(bjp-0)
5.UP-21(bjp-10)
6.Orissa-6(bjp-0)
All these adds up to 91 seats for Congress. In all these States, BJP got only 11 seats. Difference is 80 seats
BJP has to understand the cultural and regional sensitivities of people of each of these states and bring in very tall stalwarts in the respective states to lead from the front. Organizing the youths in these states is the second most important step.
Last but not the least, the top leadership of BJP should shred some of their ego in the best interest of the party. Everything will be all right then.
Rebranding of the party is the need of the hour. Have a completely different approach to reach out to people as you have seen some people of India go by glamour and sometimes even wish if Priyanka had been the PM, it would have been better for them. They need to be nurtured and should be made to think the nuances of everything that makes a leader and the country to flourish.
Go ahead with mass campaign. If congress benifits from not educating people and allowing the literacy level to be low, you jump in and bring the poor and deprived people to mainstream. I am sure congress will be wiped out when 80 to 90% polling happens and people of all age and financial status go put for voting in every state. Congress supportes - dont feel bad. Thats the reality.
Mr. Swapan Dasgupta,
I have really worked hard in my area for BJP and was really confident that BJP would emerge as a single largest party. Like all others i also wondered where we went wrong and i found some answers to my own queries which i want to list down.
1. Firstly, rightly said by one of our friends here, i do believe that the present strategies of appeasing every community doesn’t work. I am really secular by all means and i am also confident about my parties secular credentials, but why do we need to tell that we are secular.
2. Every other party and mostly congress always try to project BJP as a communal party. I really wonder why no one in our party raises an objection on this. BJP voters are very large in number, does it mean that all BJP voters are communal. Why can’t we fight this branding of BJP as communal in the court of law as by calling BJP as a communal party, any other party is barnding all the voters of BJP as communal which is a huge number.
3. I heard from a friend of mine that muslim clerics where used to spread message across their community to vote for Congress to avoid BJP coming to power at center. We must understand one thing for sure that BJP will never get a muslim vote so why not go out fully with the hindu agenda. Why don’t we approach our religious leaders like Congress uses Muslim clerics? Why to be ashamed?
Sorry i need to go, some important work, will continue next time on this
Regards,
Sunil
No dear Sunil. All Muslims are not against BJP and its quite obvious that BJP does have an inclusive agenda as you can infer from the voting pattern of states where BJP is performing well.
You are correct in saying that Congress plays minority card everytime and tries to appease the muslim voters,but what congress has done to the Muslim terrosit organizations till date is there for everyone to see. Our country will someday be talibanised if congress does not stop this nasty vote bank politics. God save our country from the hands of hypocratic so called secular congress.
Hence we must reach out to people with facts and evidences and not only by fighting with useless spokepersons of opposite party.
But for sure BJP has to throw away Varun and its sentiments aside. BJP is a true Indian party unlike congress(imported dictators)
I request the editors of this blog to publish this interview of Cho Ramaswamy which has appeared in Rediff.
A very balanced analysis on BJP debacle
http://election.rediff.com/interview/2009/may/19/loksabhapoll-cho-ramaswamy-on-election-2009.htm
Why not get Cho Ramaswamy into BJP and put him up as candidate in TN Assembly/ Lok sabha elections?
Good write up Swapan!
BJP needs a real introspection and not the typical farce one that they did in 2004. The party needs to reinvent itself in order to attract voters.
A win is a win however you want to analyse it, the credit will go to Congress on it. I have heard from my PT master that, either you win the cup or you clap for the one taking it.
The above is general comments to concur with the author but it doesnt dissect into the core issue of why we are losing it second time in a row and both times we were strongly feeling we are going to win. Go back in time when we had the India Shining, didnt we get shocked then to see that we lost, now after the Ludhiana rally didnt we feel the same.
Where is the miss, who is educating the leaders on the election feedback analysis. Who is gauging the public response and how real is it.
But above these are the core issues of what we are planning and delivering. I am really surprised that leaders are blaming a young Varun. Too bad, when the young go the wrong path you stand by them and rectify them. You emphatically express this to others that you have taken care of it. What was the puclic response to it, didnt any one go and ask the urban lot what they feel about it. Didnt we lose a lot in the urban votes.
I had expressed in the advani forum also on the ladies getting beaten by Ram Sena issue. I was just softly pushed of it. But i know when my friends from cosmopolitan cities call me and say, when women can drink villages or for Holi why cant they go to pubs. I explained to them Ram Sena is not part of BJP, but they were not convinced they voted against BJP from wherever they voted. What linked Ram Sena to BJP. Do people link naxalites to Left and strip them down, do people link link Muslim terrorists to Congress or National Conference . What is the difference, where is the perception issue going wrong.
I can write on, but i have rarely seen any good interaction from the think tanks. So i will hold on until i see some sign of interest
Swapan’s article here and his generally “high handed” attitude is probably why The Pioneer sells only 10,000 copies.
Your “intellectual analysis” Swapan and all of you here who says that BJP should not be branded communal etc…etc…only make you sound like “meek” apologetics…
AND THATS WHAT BJP SOUNDED this elections and the youth of this country does not like that. They want an ideal and a cause. If BJP’s ideology (the ideology from which they are trying to run away) was regressive then by that yardstick Raj Thackeray’s MNS which is only three years old and branded in Indian media as one that indulges in “hate politics” would NOT have garnered the kind of votes that it did…making the BJP-SS look STUNNED.
And there was no dream that the middle class got. The middle class wants the some kind of dreama and aspiration…which Congress gave them in the form of development…was there no other dream that could be sold?? Yes there was… and that was PRIDE.
BJP could not give these two to its target audience “because” of which it lost. An ideal to the youth and PRIDE to the middle class. Hence they lost.
If BJP plays the same confused tune aping the congress ideologies and sounding apologetic all the while…they are going to lose the next and all elections henceforth!!
Contd..
4. We need to stop infighting.Party agenda should be the top priority. Individual sacrifices to represent constituencies are really important. Unless we give tickets to right candidates, we wont win. Delhi beats me to the core that we have not been getting seats for a long time now. Why cant we give tickets to deserving candidates and bring young people forward to lead?
5. Why have we left down south to regional parties? We need to build our party in all the states and fight it with full force.
6. We need a Rahul Gandhi type of young politician who can dedicate his time to visit remote places and spend time with the poor people of this country and spend time to listen to their problems and try to solve their problems. I think Varun will be a right person.
Appeal to all BJP leaders and supporters/friends. Boycott biased media channels and newspapers. Then see how it will effect their revenues. Teach them a lesson. I have cancelled subscription of NDTV pack on my Big TV connection alongwith India Today subscription.
Join this campaign.
hi, friends of bjp i am sorry for behaviour but when bjp lost bsdly then i lost my strength u people dont retain old seats and lost in rajasthan damn badly and in uttar pradesh why u know becoz varun gandhi comment and jaitely ji and rajnath rivalrly even rajnath is not able to convince uttar pradesh people to vote bjp is not able person mayavati or amar singh know how too convince up public i think its really really shame ful for all bjp for leaders why they dont go and meet village people like nitesh kumar why u people have bad attitude and sitting in AC S but videshi pilla har village jaa raha tha aur public ko convince kar liya usne he proved htat all old LEADERS OF BJP R USELESS AND EFFORT LESS THOOO HAI EK BACHA ABLE GUY HAI AUR YEARS OF EXPERIENCE R USE LESS modi factor also makes us looser i feel TEN YRS OF DEFEAT HURTS GULAMI AUR SWABHIMAAN KE LIYE we can do anything sometime i feel bjp top leaders takes bribe from congress in delhi or all india u peolpe r tootally useless no GROUND LEVEL CONNECTION NO DIRECT CONNECT TOO PUBLIC NO BODY ASK US TOO VOTE BUT WE LOVE BJP AND OUR IDEOLOGY ALSO MATCHES WITH BJP POWER KE LIYE AGRESIVE HONA PADTA HAI EVEN IT TAKES LAKHS OF DEATHS BUT NO COMPROMISE FOR POWER LEARN TACTICS FROM CONGRSSE THEY KILLED SILENTEL INDRA GANDHI AND RAJIV GANDHI BUT STILL PEOPLE OF INDIA SUPPORT THEM in delhi u peole have intenal fights goel think newdeldi seat why he didnt take chadni chock yaar uuuu dijected us all hopes r death aur buried in deep hole MY FAMILY ALWAYS SUPPORT BJP BUT NO RESULTS WE EVER GOT FROM BJP VOTED FROM LAST DECADES FOR BJP ALL I CAN SAY FIRST MAKE UTTAR PRADESH STRONG SEND RAJNATH THEIR TELL HIM FIRST WON ALL SEATS FO BJP THEN COME TOO DELHI GOO BACK 80 SEATS MAKES DIFFERENCE IN DELHI ALL SIKHS, SC-ST, BRAHIMS, JATS AND OFCOURSE LOVEABLE MUSLIMS OF CONGRESS VOTED WHEREIS BJP THINK GUYS THINK EVEN YOUTH DONT SUPPORT U GUYS OK I HOPE BEST FOR U AAP LOG ATTACK KARNA AUR KARWANA SIKHO AAM JANTA MARTE HAI TOU MARE PAR POWER TOU MILTE HAI KUCH LAKH IS IS DESH MEIN KUCH NAHI HOGA OK BEST OF LUCK JAI SHRI RAM
boycott BJP RSS ABVP SIVASENA
INDIA doesn’t need bjp boycott BJP RSS ABVP SIVASENA
Pseudo Secualrism is nothing but “Glorified Cowardice”. Real seculars do not shout from rooftops. look at U.K and USA.India,Israel and China became Independent at the same time. Look where have Israel and China reached and where are we. Our only competitor is Pakistan, All this is is result of too much Cowardice which
is inherent in us,which we hide behind pseudo secularism. By God’s grace somehow our Army has remained only secular and not pseudo secular and we are able to exist as a nation. May be in long run even that institution is destroyed.
BJP has to factor all these constraints before deciding its strategies.