Why Stability won over Change
by Sudheendra Kulkarni
May 16 has reinforced my two inter-related beliefs about the behaviour of the Indian voter. First, there is nothing fortuitous about the outcome of an election in a democracy where elections are held in a free and fair manner. And Indian democracy, with all its obvious drawbacks, has a proud tradition of conducting elections in a largely free and fair manner. In other words, no party or alliance has ever won by a stroke of luck. There has always been a compelling inner logic to its victory, and this is also true about the Congress party’s victory in the polls to the 15th Lok Sabha.
My second belief is that there is something, which can most appropriately be called the ‘National Mind’, at work through which the nationally unifying logic operates. The concept of a group mind or a collective mind is one of the most complex subjects of study in mass psychology and organisational behaviour. Nation being a natural organising framework of human collectivities, the more so in a continuously living civilisational entity like India, this living being has a mind of its own which knows what is good for it under a given circumstance. It surveys the internal political situation, assesses the external scenario, weighs different considerations and arrives at a sound and rational judgment. Thus, transcending all the caste, communal and regional considerations that were being discussed threadbare in the run-up to the elections, the National Mind summoned a unifying rationale and made it assert itself in the final verdict of the electorate.
According to me, the National Mind was weighing between two options in the just-concluded elections: change and stability. Change was the need of the hour since there was nothing exceptional about the performance of the Congress-led UPA government between 2004 and 2009. Barring a few welcome initiatives like the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the UPA government’s track record was average on some counts and dismal on most others. Judged solely on the basis of its performance, the government deserved to go. However, the voters rarely oust a government on the criterion of performance alone. They also look for a viable and stable alternative.
In some of the campaign-time television debates that I participated in, I had said that more than political parties and commentators, it is the people of India who have the highest stake in political stability at the Centre. They know instinctively, guided by historical memory, that political instability in New Delhi is hurtful to the nation and to themselves in their daily lives. In their eyes, the need for a stable government had become greater on account of the economic crisis, created partly by external factors, and the turmoil in India’s neighbourhood, especially in Pakistan. An unstable coalition government, whose attention would get diverted to managing its own internal squabbles and whose energies would be wasted in ensuring its own survival, would not, in the estimation of the electorate, meet the challenges before the nation.
The National Mind would have been the happiest if there was a strong possibility for a positive change with reliable stability. This is where the BJP and the alliance it led failed to meet the people’s expectations. In four big states—Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal, which together account for 143 Lok Sabha seats-the BJP’s own strength was near-zero. Moreover, it had no allies in these states in 2009, and such allies as it had in the six-year NDA rule (1998-2004) had deserted it for fear of losing Muslim votes. It did nothing in the past five years to allay this fear. Furthermore, when the Biju Janata Dal parted ways with the BJP in March this year, the latter’s ability to lead a stable coalition at the Centre got seriously dented. It thus became obvious to the people that any future BJP-led coalition in New Delhi would be a hotchpotch arrangement, critically dependent for its survival on undependable non-Congress non-Left parties.
The BJP could have still performed much better on its own and won enough seats to reflect the people’s desire for change of government. But the internal fissures in this once disciplined and united party were so glaring, both at the central and state levels, that far from attracting new supporters, it disillusioned a significant section of its own committed voters. In contrast, even those who abhor the dynastic rule and the culture of sycophancy in the Congress could see that the party scored over the BJP in terms of unity of command. With the media highlighting the lack of cohesion within the BJP, the many positive aspects of its governance and development agenda took the backseat. Hence, the BJP failed to capture the imagination of the people either as an agent of change or as a guarantor of stability. The BJP’s failure was the Congress’s gain. Since the desired change seemed impossible, the National Mind rooted for stability. It chose the Congress as a default option, giving it enough parliamentary strength to ensure a stable government.
Difficult days are ahead for the BJP. It faces problems that are multi-dimensional. Its second consecutive defeat in parliamentary elections calls for honest and mercilessly self-critical introspection on issues relating to ideology, organisational health of the party, leadership at various levels, management of alliances, and much more. It must seek a fresh endorsement from the National Mind, which is possible if the BJP, instead of trying to take short-cuts to revival, reforms itself thoroughly as a party with an inspiring and inclusive transformational agenda. The BJP has come out successfully from many an agni-pareeksha in the past. It will certainly do so again.
(This article was first published in the Indian Express on May 24, 2009.)
Comments
11 Responses to “Why Stability won over Change”
This is heartening to see that someone senior in BJP acknowledges that there are problems, because that is the first step in solving them. First serious and welcome divergence from denial, semi-denial and not my problem type posts.
The next prompt action would be to actually come up with a plan (or atleast what are party’s senior leadership’s thoughts) for going forward!!
Welcome development indeed….
Kulkarniji, please give importance to growth of BJP in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, West Bengal and T.N. There is some potential here and I don’t know why these states are neglected. I believe that you are a party strategist and you please give importance to the growth of BJP in these states. In A.P, please choose a young and dynamic leader for BJP who can work hard and take the BJP to the next level. I believe Dattatreya has failed miserably to take BJP to the next level for last 20 years. Our neighbouring state under the dynamic leadership of Yedurappa is ruling the state and also given 20 seats for Lok Sabha. Compared to that, in A.P, BJP simply is pathetic. Do you want to survive or perish ?. It is in BJP’s hands now on what do next ?. Only fighters can survive. Bring this spirit into Party and the cadres and you will see miracles in 2014.
Kulkarniji,
TN BJP president L.Ganesan is the most ciorrupt person.
Party centrl leadership only listens to this person and this person is more concerned about developing himself and his brother financially.
Please look into this matter and first throw L.Ganesan out if BJP needs to grow in TN.
Earlier at least BJP had 4 seats in Loksabha from TN. In last two election its 0
this is the most frank analysis that i have come across - kudos sudheendra kulkarni
Dear kulakarniji,
I agree with you fully. BJP must seek fresh endorsement from National Mind which is very complex indeed.We know BJP is the best option for the country but winning an election is defferent ballgame altogether.Brainstorm,reform and revive.Nothing is impossible.
Regards,
B R Shetty
Bangalore.
Look at this article.
http://www.rediff.com/news/column/2009/may/29/bjp-lags-behind-but-rajnath-races-ahead.htm.
Can’t believe why Rajnath Singh is still kept by the party as the president ?. He must have been booted by the party after the loss of U.P assembly elections and god knows why is still continuing as the party chief . Is BJP leadership listening or sleeping or still doing atma-chintan ?.
One of the reasons, BJP lost this election because for 5 years from 2004-09 BJP under L K Advani behaved like disaffected and head-banging young thugs in the parliament. The nation did not overlook it. L K Advani was responsible for that. Instead of setting any good example he again fell in bloody Jinnah’s behaviour. Why is he still hanging on there like a one hand monkey. He should go ASAP.
Those are blaming Modi or Varun they are the back-stabbers of BJP. Without Modiji or Varun BJP would not have got even 100 seats.
It is the right time to get rid of the failures,corrupts, stupids and devisives and build the party from the scratch with qualities like Arun and Sushma etc.
A serious damage was done by another Bihari named Nitish Kumar when he refused to share platform with Modiji. Bloody ammunation for the English media it was against BJP.
Finally, make no mistake this time congress won because of bloody NDTV, IBN-CNN etc, the scumbags funded by foreign Christian evangelical and Mahamedan groups. In 2/3 countries in the world such anti-national journalists like Pranab, Barkha, Sonia Singh, Rajdeep, Sagarika & Co would have received deservedly amputed fingers and stitched up mouths. Wake up, Wake up and counter these pen-holding anti-Indian Talebans of Hindusthan from now on.
Varun will always be the target of attack by Media on what ever small thing he says or he does. Media will attack him to show how good and cool headed Rahul Gandhi is. BJP ha sto understand this and devise strategies against it.
BTW Elections are over and Varun Gandhi’s Hate speech CD which was first aired by CNN-IBN of Rajdeep Sardesai played a great role in it to polarize votes. If Varun supposedly made a mistake was it right and ethical on part of CNN-IBN to show that CD and so many times and even knowing that it is made by Varun’s Congressi rival.This is what English Media has stooped to. What if there were riots after seeing this. Rajdeep Sardesai was the one who made the burnt Godhra Train a tourist spot and which caused 2002 riots.
Now elections are over ,why are they not proving the CD as genuine and puting Varun for life imprisonment. Is the need to preserve secularism over now.
If the so called educated Middle class who have seen that BJP has a track record of good Governance and can turn around sick states like Bihar and Orissa and who have seen the bad rule of UPA loaded with inflation and terrorism can be fooled by a smart Media trick like Varun Gandhi one then they are even worst than the illiterates who sell their votes for Alcohol and money. God save this country then. A small incident like Varun’s speech which is hyped much by Media can force you to defeat BJP then BJP is better off in opposition
To Randheer and BJP friends,
As I have mentioned many times before, the real enemy of Hindusthan are now CNN-IBN, NDTV and their bloody foreigner employed journalists. They are more dangerous enemies of Hindusthan than Pakis or Talebans or Al Quida because they are fiercely anti-national with the supports of corrupt and vote bank blocks political parties.
As per the majority middle-class of Hisdusthan, they are least patriotic and all they are bothered about wherever possible how much they can make lollies by whatever means. An example of that, the country has such level of high unemployment and still Armed Forces have 1/3 Officers vacancies for donkeys years.
Yes CNN-IBN, NDTV and English media is real culprit and played big role in Congress victory. There is a dire need to start a nationalistic news channel to counter this anti natioanl and anti Hindu propoganda. Let us all see how it can be done.
Further it is difficult to understand why stability factor should have won for Congress. On the other hand BJP has equally good record of stability
BJP has neglected its organization in last 5 years. If you neglect UP, AP, West Bengal, TN and Kerala how can you win. It is necessary to concentrate in these states and build organization there.
Why BJP is silent on the plight of Tamils in Srilanka?According to Times of UK Srilankan army has massacred 30000 Tamil Civilians this year alone.This genocide of Tamils should not be ignored.Srilankan government should be held accountable and the displaced Tamils have to be rehabilitated immediately