Elections 2009: Read the Fine Print
by GVL Narasimha Rao
Media analysis of the 15th Lok Sabha election results has largely been aimed at forcing certain perceptions that have no empirical evidence. There have been analyses on how the surge in the Congress’s tally heralds a nationwide revival of the party. The Congress’s national vote share has gone up only marginally from 26.5 per cent in 2004 to 28.6 per cent in 2009. Curiously, the vote share of 28.6 per cent secured by the Congress in 2009 is almost the same as what it got in 1999 (28.3 per cent) when it got its lowest-ever tally of 114 seats in the general elections.
How could one say that the Congress has revived nationally when its national vote share has only increased marginally? Further, even as the party has gained in terms of votes in seven states — Punjab, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttarakhand — it has lost votes by more than 3 percentage points in a number of them (such as Orissa. Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh). UP is the only state where the Congress has shown real signs of revival with the party’s vote share going up by an impressive 6 per cent.
The other myth doing the rounds is that the Congress has an enhanced appeal among metropolitan voters due to its forward-looking policies, as well as the appeal of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh among the educated middle classes, and the ‘youth appeal’ of Rahul Gandhi among the young voters. This has no electoral proof. The Congress’s vote share in metropolitan constituencies has virtually remained the same, 30.7 per cent in 2004 and 30.4 per cent in 2009. Therefore, the premise that the new generation of urban voters with increased prosperity and greater opportunities finds the Congress more attractive and in sync with their aspirations has no basis.
This notion is coloured by the electoral performance of the party in the cities of Delhi and Mumbai. While the Congress did creditably well in Delhi, its victory in Mumbai has less to do with the imaginary enhanced appeal of the party and more to do with the emergence of Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) as a spoiler for the BJP-Shiv Sena combine.
If the Congress’s revival is not the reason for its stupendous success in the polls, what factors have contributed to its victory? The party benefited primarily from the decline and division in the vote share of its opponents. The fall in the vote of the BJP in a number of states; huge negative swings against regional parties like the Telugu Desam Party (8 per cent), the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (7 per cent) and the Samajwadi Party (4 per cent); the emergence of new parties like the Prajarajyam Party in Andhra Pradesh; the rise of the MNS in Maharashtra and the break-up of the BJP-Biju Janata Dal alliance in Orissa have all contributed to the Congress’s gains even as it suffered vote losses. In UP, it secured 21 of the 80 seats, even though it polled only 18 per cent of the popular vote. What helped the Congress in UP was the favourable distribution of votes — concentrated in a few pockets — that helped the party to translate its fewer votes into seats.
It is a given that the Congress has won this election comprehensively. The scale of the Congress’s success has astounded everyone, including party bigwigs. The ‘wave’ in favour of the Congress, however, was invisible — because there wasn’t any.
It is the failure of the BJP and other parties to hold their own that caused the BJP’s defeat; not because of a serious challenge from the Congress. This should be the message for parties like the BJP.
G.V.L. Narasimha Rao is a BJP political analyst.
(This article was first published in Hindustan Times on June 23, 2009.)
Comments
11 Responses to “Elections 2009: Read the Fine Print”
I appreciate your analysis.I can say its more unbiased and real analysis till now.Whole BJP should read this article.This win is nothing but our political mistakes not the ideologiacal problem.Media is fooling you.Hope now BJP understands the real enemy.
I hope you have already forwarded this information to the party leadership. Very good analysis of the facts based on data rahther than prejudices of the media. Please put these facts in all the forums.
Excellent article. People here have been analsing on the wrong lines. These are plain facts, no one can deny these.
One can exaggerate a little bit and point that everytime, MM Singh sneezes in Pakistan’s direction, liberal media is highlighting that as an aggresive gesture from him.
I jst want to convey a simple message that if sm body is throwing stones on us let it be..keechad will b on themselves also.
If media is deploying wrong image of BJP let it be..jst do work more harder.
Let them print watever they want..work work work until u succeed..kb tk galat likhenge BJP k baare mein…
Agr hmne galtiyan kri hain to suffer bhi karenge..its ok
wo 2 newz print karenge hm dus ache kaam krenge..
Ek na ek din hamari bhi to sarkar banegi ache kaam kark,phir kya galat print karenge.??
Den we wil b public representative,public will choose us…at dat time neither anybdy from any party nor media could hv smthing to prove us wrong…
Guyz join foots in advaniji’s march,n let unite whole country Y.O.U.T.H ..
JAI HIND.
Though I am not a great fan of Vir Sanghvi (HT) and read his columns with certain trepidition yet, I agree with him on his analysis that Indian Middle class no longer identifies itself with BJPs projected political leanings (Article 370, Temple, Hindu culture etc). On the other hand new Middle Class have a natural affinity to BJPs core beliefs that are not publicized by the media or the party itself (like capitalism, free trade, economic reforms, strong state). It is indeed sorry that BJP played upon and projected issues that no longer resonate and never presented voters with its core ideals that differentiates it from the crowd.
BJP needs to envision a future for India and not appeal voters on grouses from the past. It has to sell its vision of a prosperous and strong India and spell out what it takes to reach there - economic reforms, strong internal security and a realistic foreign policy strategy. Mandir and Masjid which represented domestic political asymmetry and brought in electoral windfall no does not resonates with times as radical Islam in India no longer derives its cadres from medieval mosque but flamboyant Al Queda that promises global hegemony and Caliphat.
One can draw lessons from Modi - who appeals to vast cross section (which unfortunately Advani did not) on basis of his strong credentials of providing a progressive and futuristic governance and a strong internal security mechanism. He does not have to talk about Babar and invaders who came hundreds of years back to invoke hindu nationalism but on the threat faced by progressive ideas and thoughts if Islamists gain ground.
I sincerely believe that BJP needs to change the tune and create a new symphony to come out of current cacophony
Good Analysis. BJP needs to desperately expand in key states like A.P, Kerala, T.N, Orrissa and W.B. The party should seriously analyze and take steps for the party to grow in these states.
is there anybody in BJP who cares for the party and the nation? When will the infighting stop? This is a very realistic analysis, perhaps , the writer has omitted the minority vote factor , minority in states like UP, West Bengal, Assam ,Rajasthan, MP etc have voted overwhelmingly en block in favour of congress and its allies . Moreover, hindus in states like Maharashtra , Gujarat, Rajasthan , MP did not come out to vote , the percentage of polling in these states were absolutely poor . Please do not blame Varun , he truely behaved like youth icon, he should be encouraged. BJP should formulate a national strategy to motivate voters with clear policies and plans. Please stop all the fighting, it is hurting BJP image.
Vasundhara Raje is not queen Jhansi. She has hurt BJP’s prospects heavily in Rajasthan. The infight between Vasundhar and Jaswanth should stop for the good of the party. If they can’t behave and resolve their differences throw both out of the party. Royality is no more an asset, it is a liability which stops them from understanding the problems of the common man and work sincerely for them. Vasundhara needs to go.
This is a good analysis explaining the victory of the Congress party. Unfortunately it does not provide any inputs as to why voters deserted BJP and why its voting share came down. I hope the author will do that analysis also.
whtever may be your analisis and conclusions congress has already the momentum and there is no stoping. bjp belongs to the past.its six years in power was only an accident in history