Shame at Sharm Al Sheikh

by Amit Malviya

It is often said that diplomacy is an art. It is evidently clear by now that both Dr Singh and Mr Krishna are inept at handling high level diplomacy. This has been reinforced by the way we as a Nation have responded to less than fair treatment being meted out to Indian students in Australia, concessions given away to US in the End User Monitoring Agreement compromising India’s security and sovereignty, accepting caps on emissions at the Climate Change summit, avoidable faux pass when Hillary Clinton (remember Krishna got a lesson from Hillary on how to exchange dossiers) visited India and most recently the sell out to Pakistan at Sharm al Sheikh.

It is no coincidence that the opposition, media, intelligentsia, opinion makers and even a section of the Government is seeing India’s strategic position being compromised in the understandings / agreements recently entered into by the Government.

It is without doubt that the joint statement issued by India and Pakistan at Sharm al Sheikh has severely compromised India’s position. It has a) accused India of fomenting trouble in Baluchistan and b) delinked the composite dialogue from action on terror. Inclusion of these references in the joint statement violates India’s stand against Pakistan. Never in the past has India ever given such concessions to Pakistan. Following the joint statement, a report has appeared in Dawn saying that Pakistan has handed a dossier to India highlighting its role in Baluchistan and attack on Srilankan players in Lahore. Not that one should loose sleep over the Dawn report, we also can’t deny the fact that we have handed over the advantage to Pakistan.

PM, the nice man he is, has defended this joint statement by saying that India has nothing to hide. This is a nice statement if it came from a political novice and not from the head of a State. The MoS in the External Affair Ministry, Shashi Tharoor, has a completely different take on the joint statement. He said that such joint statements are not legally valid and therefore should not be a matter of concern. Was he trying to imply that the document that the PM has signed is not even worth the piece of paper it is printed on or does he not know that in 1965 we handed over the Haji Pir Pass (critical to dominate the LoC) despite the military objections as part of one such joint agreement or including the words “outstanding issues” in the 1972 Shimla Agreement allowed Pakistan to revive the Kashmir issue all over again.

I am sure he is a smart man to realize the blunder but he obviously sees himself more as a politician than a former diplomat. While a statement like this could have cost him his job in UN, he is only ensuring that he is furthering his political career by defending the PM.

The Foreign Secretary has gone on record saying that it is a case of bad drafting (I hope that is indeed the case). Former diplomats have pointed out that the joint statement should include only what both the countries agree on. If there is a point of disagreement, then it should not find its way to the joint statement. But still the Government and Congress Party continue to defend the joint statement, at least in the public domain. Their compulsion is understandable.

As the PM rises in the House today to clarify the statement, it is likely that he will not have anything credible to say beyond what we already know. Nevertheless the country has the right to know why is the Congress led Government gambling with India’s pride ? Is it that Mr Singh realizes that he has very little time in office and wants to make a mark for himself in history ? While Dr Manmohan Singh will be remembered as the Regent who stood guard till the crown prince was ready to take over, he is clearly getting ambitious. This was evident in the way he defended the Nuclear deal and now his attempts to script a new chapter in Indo-Pak diplomacy. While I wish him luck, I only hope he will not compromise India’s interest. This I hope is not much to ask.

I also wonder sometime, purely based on how we as a Nation come across on global stage, that we have lost sense of pride, the realization that we are a power house and have a dominant role to play in the region. We dismiss trouble, which could potentially destabilize us, in neighbouring states as “their internal matter”. Assault on Indian students is a mere Law and Order problem of Australia. Can you imagine US reacting to injustice against their countrymen in another country in the same vein ? How do we explain our tolerance to repeated terrorist attacks on India ? Are we too resilient or perhaps don’t like confrontation to the extent that we are ok even if we appear weak and timid ?

It is time that we got up and faced the world as a self assured Nation capable of dominating world politics. Aspiring to be a super power is also about behaving like one !

Is Idiotbox the Solution?

by Amit Malviya

“If there is electricity, people will watch TV late into the night and fall asleep. They won’t get a chance to produce children” - Ghulam Nabi Azad, Union Health Minister

This is a statement made by the honourable Health Minister on the World Population Day. He also suggested that women should marry at the age of 29 to 30 in order to control population growth in the country. Both these statements reflect a poor understanding of the challenge at hand and worse the Minister’s appreciation of the social order in the country. In the ensuing paragraphs, I will highlight specific instances to bring out the enormity of task at hand (population control) and what the Health Ministries’ priorities should be.

A not so distant relative of mine in my native village had eleven children. Only ten survived. It was strange that at one point of time the mother and daughter were both expecting. Let me clarify - they were educated, well to do and also had television ! She was in fact a teacher in the village school and eventually retired as the principal. So why did they have so many children ? Their desire to have a male child kept them in pursuit and it was their destiny that they had to wait this long. This is not an isolated instance. Eleven is an exceptionally big number but it is not unusual for people to have four to five children only because they are looking for a family heir. The solution is to educate the people and drive home the point that it does not matter if it is a boy or girl because in this changing social order both have equal opportunities. There was a time when such social messages were broadcasted with regularity but one does not see them too often now. Is it because a lot of people have moved away from Doordarshan and Government cannot spend enough on advertising on private channels.

On my last trip to UP, I happened to meet a health worker. She was working for the State Government and was responsible for a few villages. She had just returned from one such visit and started narrating how this woman she just met was pregnant for the fifth time. The Government apparently gives meager sum of money for the first two deliveries, which gets shared between the village Sarpanch (apparently for recommending the name and completing the paper work) and the family. It is understandable that the financial support would prompt people to have two children, but why more especially if they can’t provide for them. The health worker explained that most of the time women can’t refuse the men who are not employed through out the year, are invariably alcoholics and usually have a lot of time on hand. They can’t even suggest, let alone enforce use of contraceptive. The result is babies and more babies ! The situation is grim when it comes to Muslims who are seized with the belief that use of contraceptive is against their religion.

Equality and empowerment of women thus becomes very important. It is equally critical to educate the men and perhaps incentivize them financially for not having more than two children. Can we consider a legislation that than anyone having more than two children will not be entitled to benefits from the State ?

Let this not look like a problem of the villages alone. There are several cases of unwanted pregnancies as a result of indiscriminate sex in urban slums too. The reasons are same - lack of education, employment and empowerment of women. It is quite evident that the relatively progressive states of South have a relatively lower rate of population growth. It is also no surprise that they are more literate and their women enjoy better standing in the society.

Lack of electricity and television was never a reason in any of these instances !

I also can’t quite understand how the Minister thinks it is possible for women to push up the marriage age to 29/30 when the country is seized with social customs encouraging child marriages ! Even in urban areas, well educated families want to see their daughters settled latest by 26/27. Isn’t it ironical that a country where State Governments return to power on successful programs like “Kanyadan Yojana”, the Health Minister is suggesting something which will result in unprecedented social chaos.

As always the Ministry has not talked about “How to?” implement the suggestions. Merely hoping that miracle will happen and the situation will be addressed is not good enough. I hope that the Health Minister will move on from the frivolous statements and focus on delivering basic healthcare facilities to the vast uncovered population. We cannot afford him fret away precious time like his predecessor who was busy fighting turf war with the Director of AIIMS !

Concept Note: New India Policy Foundation (Part 4)

The Differentiation

The Foundation will be different from existing think tanks in at least two different ways: (a) It will focus on developing policy ideas for practical real-life issues, rather than engage in mere theoretical pursuits, and (b) Engaging with policy makers and opinion leaders will be an integral part of its mandate, and it will be judged by the direct impact it will make in shaping the policy discourse in the country.

This Foundation will institutionalise the process of public policy research and intervention outside of the Government machinery. It will do so by employing and engaging the best minds under one umbrella, aggregating valuable information and ideas relevant for India, initiating debates in the intelligentsia and civil society and influencing the collective conscious of legislators and bureaucrats. It will be intellectually best in class and a constructive source of inputs on all important areas of legislation and policy making. It will aim to become the fountain head of all policy research and decision making in this country.

It will distinguish itself from other Think Tanks by its “result-oriented” (outcome focused) approach to policy intervention. The effectiveness of its output will be measured in a scientific manner and employee benefits will be linked to it. It will only have a guiding philosophy, and will have no pre-defined political affiliation. It will be accountable to its trustees and the country.

Article 377 – Food for Thought

In an opinion piece titled “Shy society. Shameless debate“, S Gurumurthy writes: “Homosexuals displaced the Economic Survey for the year 2008-09 from the headlines of most media on July 3, 2009. New headings such as, ‘Historic benchmark’; ‘Sexual equality’; ‘Landmark Judgement’ appeared in the media. This is how the media had headlined the Delhi High Court judgement holding Sec. 377 of the Indian Penal Code, which makes homosexual acts offences in law, partly unconstitutional. Sec. 377 of the Indian Penal Code was not Manu’s code. It was Macaulay’s. This colonial law made homosexuality punishable. In Judeo-Christian tradition homosexuality was seen an act against the law of God, punishable even with death. The Islamic rules also prescribed capital punishment for the offence. In all Abrahamic traditions the hostility to homosexuality originated in the story associated with a city as Sodom [the etymological source of the world 'sodomy'] where the sexual sin was first committed according to their texts, though the respective accounts varied. This is the philosophy of the law against homosexuals in Abrahamic societies. Macaulay’s law reflected their theological position. Earlier, there was no state law in India to punish homosexuality. Does that mean that the Hindu Â- read Indian Â- tradition approved of homosexuality?”

The article adds: “What was the position of the state and state enacted laws in India in such matters? The king or the state in India had refrained from handling most issues which the society or families could handle. It is the colonial state, with its laws and courts, that began to intrude the sovereign domain of the family and society. The Indian discipline was always built around unenforced social and family norms; not state laws. Self-restraint and shyness were the tools to regulate the deviants from the norms, not the police or courts. Even today, it is this non-formal moral order Â- read dharma Â- not the laws of Parliament or State assemblies, that largely governs this society. India is otherwise ungovernable; just some 12,000 plus police stations in some 7 lakh towns and villages cannot regulate over 110 crore people. Thanks to this moral order, the Indian society had handled, and even now handles, such sensitive issues with great finesse than does state law. It is in stark contrast to the gross state law and media discourse of today. Historian Devdutt Puranik says that in Hindu literature ‘though not part of the mainstream, the existence of homosexuality was recognised, but, not approved’.”

It concludes: “Tolerance for the deviants from generally accepted human conduct is part of the Indian ethos. Here the society would wisely ignore the marginal deviants rather than punish them, even discuss them Â- a more subtle, sensible social management principle. The society felt, even now feels, shy to discuss them. That is why the traditional religious scholars have refused to be drawn into the current debate on the issue. In the Indian tradition, homosexuals, as elsewhere, were thus regarded as deviants. But, here, unlike in the Abrahamic, the right of these deviants to exist without being punished was never denied; and will never be. Yet no one can argue here or elsewhere that homosexuality is a virtue. No law or court of law can declare it as a virtue”.

Given that the Supreme Court has upheld the Delhi High Court’s verdict decriminalizing homosexuality and on the other hand a survey indicates that 81pct of Indians do not approve of same sex relationships, let us know what you think ?

This piece first appeared in Indian Express on 16 July 09.

Concept Note: New India Policy Foundation (Part 3)

The Objectives and Activities

The two main objectives of the Foundation are:

The Foundation will take up a number of activities:

The Foundation expects to demonstrate tangible results within the first few years of its operation. The Foundation will try and forge links with like-minded individuals and institutions globally.

Tomorrow: The Differentiation

Concept Note: New India Policy Foundation (Part 2)

The Solution

There is a cross section of society who believes that there is space for new thinking beyond being wedded to socialist ideals. The Group believes that there is scope for new ideas with a right-of-centre thrust, on a range of economic and social issues in the country. This group is coming together to create a new think tank - the New India Policy Foundation — that will provide cutting edge research on a range of economic and social issues.

The Foundation will propose, educate and engage with policy makers (elected representatives and members of bureaucracy) with the objective of guiding public policy, legislation and delivery, and influencing public opinion. Its support in matters of policy and governance will be driven by India’s long-term requirement and not short-term opportunism. The Foundation will be guided by the principles of liberal democracy, free enterprise (keeping in mind the interests of wider sections of society), social inclusion, robust defence policy and nationalism and will deliver India-oriented research.

The Foundation will analyse ongoing programmes and make suggestions for new policies that can be taken up by policy makers across party lines. Even as the Foundation expects that it is likely to have a right-of-centre thrust in its work, the Foundation will take a well researched and reasoned position on issues affecting India, rather than being driven purely by any economic or social ideology. The Foundation will be supported by a wide range of actors such as grant making foundations, the corporate sector, and individuals.

Similar parallels can be found with Heritage Foundation and Centre for American Progress, which support the Republican and Democratic Parties in the US, respectively.

Tomorrow: The Objectives and Activities

Concept Note: New India Policy Foundation

One of the ideas that a group of us have been thinking is the creation of a centre-right policy foundation / think thank. Amit Malviya and I, with help from a few others, have put a concept note on the idea. We would be keen to get your feedback on this.

The Problem

India since Independence has seen politics of convenience, one that is driven by individual preferences and often catering to compulsions of electoral politics. In the process, public policy-making and delivery are severely compromised. It is ironical that the Congress party has at its convenience oscillated from opposing Socialism to being a strong proponent of it and then embracing free markets when driven by compulsion. The Party has straddled these positions all in a matter of a few decades. Likewise, the BJP when in power, neither emerged as Right of Centre nor did it espouse the cause of Swadeshi. Popular perception is that the two major national parties have little to distinguish their economic policies and are often accused of being opportunistic and short sighted when it comes to policy related matters.

As a result, it is no secret that India as a nation has not realised its potential even after six decades of Independence. Our agriculture is in dismal state, internal security is compromised with alarming impunity, manufacturing sector is not robust enough to employ the vast semi skilled work force, education is highly regulated, health services are woefully insufficient and infrastructure is grossly inadequate. A nation of over a billion people is ruled by absolute adhocism. We are invariably held hostage to one of the pressure groups operating to services the narrow interest of its subjects.

In essence, India suffers from a lack of critical thinking on several key issues of national importance.  The thinking that goes on happens within the confines of government - the civil service and the cabinet.  There is almost a complete absence of groups outside the formal establishment who develop new policy ideas and actively engage with policy makers to see the ideas through.

It is this state of affairs that has prompted the idea of creating a Foundation which will work towards creating a better future for India.

Tomorrow: The Solution

Ironic Euphemism for Brazen Betrayal

by Swapan Dasgupta

There is a small minority of Indians who grew up in cities and hill stations where the British influence lingered for a decade or two after Independence. Of them, there must be another lot that developed a liking for the oh-so-English fudge — an extremely rich confectionary made with sugar, butter and milk with a light flavouring of cocoa or vanilla or even chocolate.

I have always preferred the fudge to either lozenges or toffee. There is nothing that gives me greater pleasure than landing up in a quaint English town or a village fair in the ‘Shires and buying a small packet of creamy fudge from one of those sensible ladies who run those quaint tea shops. It is one of those simple pleasures of life — as worthwhile as re-reading an Agatha Christie whodunit on a holiday.

Unfortunately, life isn’t all that uncluttered. Like the perfectly innocuous terms ‘gay’ and ‘queer’ that have been misappropriated by determined crusaders of ignoble causes, fudge no longer conjures happy images of innocent childhood. The term is more commonly associated with a sleight of hand, deceit and manipulation. In the age of innocence, this fudge would have been shunned; in today’s world of cleverness, it has become a political attribute, a byword for canniness.

Take the battle of figures involving Minister for Railways Mamata Banerjee and her predecessor Lalu Prasad Yadav. In her intervention in the Lok Sabha on July 9, Mamata revealed that Lalu’s claim that the Indian Railways was in the pink of health with a cash surplus of Rs 90,000 crore was worse than an eyewash — it was a fudge. “One cannot talk about the income and skip the expenditure part,” Mamata told the House, “after spending Rs 28,200 crore on account of the Sixth Pay Commission award for two years, we are left with a cash surplus of Rs 8,361 crore.”

It is a misfortune that the significance of this scandalous revelation by the Railways Minister has, by and large, escaped the political class. What Mamata was alluding to wasn’t a minor miscalculation or an accountant’s error. She was suggesting that her predecessor wilfully misled both Parliament and the nation. Worse, her revelation of the true state of railway finances pointed to the fact that the Budget has lost its sanctity and that official statistics are fudged.

The significance of the fudge is awesome. Less than a year ago, the corporate sector was shaken by the disclosure that Satyam Computer had misled its shareholders about the true state of the company’s finances. The company has been charged with criminal conspiracy, its auditors have been sacked and its chairman is behind bars and may well receive a stiff prison sentence. If Lalu is guilty of concealment and misrepresentation, it follows that his offence is no less severe than that of the hapless Ramalinga Raju. If Raju is prosecuted for playing havoc with the money of investors and banks, does Lalu and, for that matter, the Railway Board get away by fudging the accounts of a corporation funded by the taxpayer? There cannot be different sets of laws for the private and public sector.

Nor does the buck stop here. Lalu was a member of Manmohan Singh’s Government and was repeatedly praised by the Prime Minister for his remarkable performance. Surely the Prime Minister now owes the country an explanation? So far he has been silent.

Fudging, it would seem, is fast becoming a national preoccupation. In suggesting that the fiscal deficit of India stood at some 6.8 per cent of the GDP, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee need not be charged with Laluism, but he was certainly guilty of inexactitude. The figure, as he well knows and as do economists, is only a partial representation of the true state of public finances. If non-Budget items such as the deficit of States, oil bonds and fertiliser subsidy are added to the list, the real fiscal deficit is likely to approximate between 12 and 13 per cent of a falling GDP.

The implications of this are staggering. It means that the Government is bequeathing to the country a debt burden that will haunt the present and the future. Yes, there is a law enacted in 2003 that makes it obligatory for a Government to pursue the path of fiscal responsibility. But the Government has unilaterally waived its own responsibility for following the law — on the ground that exceptional situations warrant exceptional remedies. This means that there is very little faith in the Government actually carrying out its commitment to lower the fiscal deficit in the next two years. If the monsoons don’t come up to expectations, the profligacy with public finances will continue merrily and be justified.

The issue is not so much whether or not the Government has a right to pursue voodoo economics. That privilege cannot be taken away from an elected Government. The more important question is the ethics of selective revelation, bordering on concealment, what in everyday parlance is called fudging. If you doubt what I am saying, just correlate the official claim of a negative rate of inflation with the soaring consumer price index.

At one time, particularly after smooth public relations professionals started regulating the flow of information, many Western Governments were charged with being a hostage to spin. In India, the quality of non-cricket spin is still amateurish. But we have moved to a higher level of political management. We are now a nation driven by fudge.

What a shame, it isn’t the real thing.

(This article was first published in The Pioneer on July 12, 2009.)

Budget 2009: Right, Left, Centre or Nowhere!?

by Unmesh Sharma

Mr Pranab Mukherjee took over the office of Finance Minister in 2009, 25 years after his last stint in that office. The needs of India’s post- 1991 economy are clearly very different from 1984. The economy is especially under strain from the global credit crisis. Mr Mukherjee has the responsibility of managing multiple interests: the left wing proponents in the party, the fiscal strain on the economy and the expectations of the people who have provided UPA with a firm mandate. At the same time he also has to keep an eye on upcoming state elections (notably in Maharashtra).

Something for everyone, Everything for no one

The budget tried to play to every gallery. In various news reports, right wing political analysts termed the budget as left-of-centre, while the leftists called it elitist and implied that it was too far to the right. Whenever that happens in India, it tends to show that the budget was either ‘just right’ or just ‘a maintenance budget’. I however think it was somewhere in the middle. The budget speech made a lot of the right noises. The Finance minister highlighted his focus on the rural economy (extension of the farm loan waiver and increased allocation to the rural employment guarantee scheme), infrastructure (both rural and urban) and disinvestment.

He also fulfilled his political duty by invoking late Smt Indira Gandhi while discussing state owned enterprises and pulling off a subtle stunt. (The skipping of two paragraphs aimed at minorities and then reading them out on receiving a note was quite effective. It showed the UPA’s focus on the minorities while quelling noise on blatant appeasement).

There was also a mention of Mumbai (storm water drain project) keeping in mind the upcoming state elections.

Generally negative reaction

The budget speech was however more a statement of intent and less of a plan. That is probably what spooked the market. On the day of the budget, the BSE Sensex fell 900 points (nearly 6%). The Indian Rupee depreciated 1.4% against the U.S. dollar while the government bond yield increased sharply by 16 basis points. To be fair to the UPA government, my personal opinion (as a participant in the financial markets) is that unnecessarily high expectations were built in before the budget.

That is not to say however that everything was right with the budget. The market clearly expected the UPA government to go on a path of fiscal consolidation. This has not come through. In fact, the budget finance minister’s estimate for fiscal deficit of 6.8% of GDP was higher compared to expectations of 6.0-6.5%. It is also notable that the target set by the UPA-1 government in the interim budget in February was 5.5% of GDP. It seems that the shortfall is mainly due to the loss in revenue from the changes in personal income tax and no reversal in any of the cuts in excise duty and service tax.

Rating agency S&P has estimated that if we include state government deficits and off-balance-sheet items such as oil and fertilizer bonds, the deficit could reach a whopping 12% of GDP in fiscal 2009-2010. This is clearly alarming. While the finance minister did mention that oil subsidies have to be brought under control, there were no concrete announcements made in the budget speech.

Importantly, the fact that the government will have to borrow even more, has other implications. It could lead to the crowding out of private investment, either directly or via higher interest rates.

At the same time, we should indeed note that there have been some outright positive outcomes. The irritating fringe benefit tax has been withdrawn. The personal income tax surcharge has been removed, which helps only people in the highest income brackets but at the same time is likely to reduce tax evasion. (Even the US Republicans would have been proud of this move).

Some optimistic analysts are giving Mr Mukherjee the benefit of the doubt. The primary argument is that this was a budget focussed on growth versus consolidation. The government may also have erred on the side of caution, perhaps influenced by the volatile news flow on the monsoon. Some analysts also believe that the revenue growth estimates in the budget are too conservative and we may see some positive surprise by March 2010.

These are credible arguments but we wait and watch for some key upcoming events to get a handle on whether the UPA’s actions match their words.

What would we look for now?

Mr Mukherjee clearly indicated the government wants to return to fiscal consolidation at the earliest. We have to keep an eye on the report by the 13th (Kelkar) Finance Commission. The deadline for this is October 2009. This is likely to help get a sense of the roadmap for fiscal consolidation in the medium term. The contents of the new Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM-2) are also very important from this perspective.

Mr Mukherjee has also promised to release a new ‘Direct Taxes Code’ within the next 45 days. The bill is aimed at replacing the Income Tax Act of 1961 and some other tax laws, and will be tabled in the Lok Sabha’s winter session. This is aimed at simplifying the tax structure and can be path-breaking if correctly framed and implemented.

What should the BJP do?

S&P has rightly mentioned in their report that “the hefty fiscal deficits and debts outstanding (general government gross debt estimated at 85% of GDP at the end of March 2009) are two of the most significant negative factors…”. The BJP is clearly not under pressure from coalition politics, historical baggage and other compulsions that the UPA is subject to. It is time that the BJP come up with their own shadow budget, Instead of nit-picking in single aspects, it is time to ‘up the game’. This is an opportunity to cement its position as a credible and constructive opposition. It should present a paper in the public domain which provides a constructive criticism of the budget and present alternatives. (This is also likely to go down well with the urban population in cities such as Mumbai and may help in the upcoming state elections).

In summary, the government has moved away from the far left. Its lack of dependence on support of left parties to keep its majority in parliament is showing in its commentary. At the same time, it is also clear that the UPA government is most comfortable with its slightly ‘left-of-centre’ positioning. The BJP has to use the next five budgets as an opportunity to present shadow budgets and seem constructive (versus opportunistic or disruptive). That will be a big step in emerging as a credible alternative in election 2014.

The views expressed here by the author are his personal views, and do not represent the views of his employer.

How to Fix the Hole in the Bucket (Part 2)

by Sudipto Das

(You can read Part 1 here.)

To fix the ‘hole’ small NGOs may not be the solution because it would take ages to cover the full country. Government alone has to do this with the help of private partnerships. Things that we need immediately are:

The public expenditure required in all these can be used for schemes like NREGS. Each of these activities will save government from the wasteful gimmicks like Rs3/kg rice. Similar thought process can really help us in this moment when our fiscal deficit is touching 10% of GDP.

Sudipto blogs at http://sudiptounplugged.blogspot.com

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